The Future Used to Look Like This

Chocolat Lombart missed the mark on predicting future

editor


June 2021 Geopolitics

Jure Stojan DPhil

ASSOCIATE EDITOR AT THE ADRIATIC


‘How will our great-grand-nephews live in the year 2012?’ This was the design brief that landed, in 1912, with the renowned Parisian art printers Norgeu.

The client was the Parisian chocolate maker Lombart – at the time, chocolatiers competed not only on taste of their produce but also on the quality of collectible cards included with food packaging. This commission resulted in a set of six postcards that have since achieved anthological status in the history of advertising art – sometimes referred to as ‘chromo’ since it was printed in chromolithography, a technique invented in the 19th century. These postcards also feature in the classic reference work on the topic (mostly, a showcase of Bibliothèque Nationale’s collections) – Christophe Canto’s and Odile Faliu’s The History of the Future: Images of the 21st century (Paris, 1993).

Parallel worlds

The Chocolat Lombart cards depict an eery kind of parallel reality – what is supposed to be our contemporary life but evidently imagined in the waning years of the Belle Époque. They represent vintage steampunk, to use 21st-century keywords. All characters are dressed in the latest fashions of 1912 – an understandable artist’s choice. After all, fashion is supposed to be in touch with the future (at least this is what designers have argued for centuries). But it is not only the clothes and the grooming that make the images instantly dated (in both senses of the word). They reflect a rigid social world which is clearly structured and hierarchical. Servants bow to the whims and desires of the select few which literally hover above the masses. Ironically, these two aspects appear less anachronistic in 2021 than they did, say, in 1951 – a consequence of hipster fashion, both in apparel and facial hear, and of rising economic inequality.

Stop here, we’re going to take our “CHOCOLAT LOMBART”

Another sure giveaway is the central deceit of these images – all of them imagine how in 2012, consumers are driven by an unstoppable urge to fetch Lombart chocolates. This is, of course, blatantly untrue. Unimaginable as it might have been in 1912, neither the brand nor the company survived to see the new millennium. They disappeared in 1957 (in this case, business longevity did not equate with immortality – Lombart had claimed to have been founded in 1760).

Such details aside, two out of six predictions proved to be remarkably prescient. We really did have video calls in 2012, even though only a minority would opt to use a video projector. There really are tourist submarines touring the seas, including in the Adriatic, even though they operate at much shallower depths than imagined in 1912 and do not dock to special under-water stations. Another prediction was a near-miss – while humanity did indeed make it to the Moon in 1969, there are still no regular civil flights between Earth and its natural satellite. And interplanetary rockets decidedly look very unlike the space car imagined in the name of Chocolat Lombart. The artist most obviously failed in the prediction apparently designed to flatter the client’s ego. It almost feels petty to point out that in 2012, there were no regular deliveries of Lombart chocolates, by zeppelin, from Paris to London.

Good afternoon my child – we’re going to send you your “CHOCOLAT LOMBART” by Southeast Asian airship

There was a prediction the artist was apparently most confident about – as implied by the fact that it is laid out over two cards. Namely, that of the flying car. Now, the flying car is a somewhat of an iconic object, existing in numerous plans, drawings, and science-fiction films and, even as working prototypes – but not (yet) in the lifestyle-defining way the artist envisioned.

To the late anthropologist David Graeber, the very absence of flying cars was damning evidence that capitalism had lost its mojo (he blamed all-pervasive bureaucratization). Incidentally, Graeber’s essay was published in 2012. But it should be noted that the flying cars he had in mind were those predicted for 2015 as recently as 1989 in the movie Back to the Future II. Many will be heartened to hear that in 2021, flying cars are once again being developed by several companies around the world.

Lessons of (failed) predictions

The futuristic prints distributed by Chocolat Lombart in 1912 are charming pieces of printed ephemera. But they are also vivid illustrations of what works – and what doesn’t – in future studies, technological predictions, and economic forecasting (the process of trying to guess the future carries many names depending on the field of study). It all follows from one central observation. Namely, that Chocolat Lombart’s year 2012 is merely a 1912 with fancy stuff attached to it.

First, while it makes sense to predict the short run by extrapolating from the most recent data points (say, the latest Paris fashions in coiffures), this yields extraordinarily twisted and distorted visions of the long run.

Second, even though the biases of extreme extrapolation may be easy to spot in its total effect (in aggregate) mere decades after the prediction was made, it is difficult to say which particular detail will turn out to be most off the mark. The sumptuous beards displayed in some images would have marked them as ridiculously out-of-date by the late 1930s. After the spread of hipster fashions of the 2010s, pre-World-War-I trends in facial hair and clothing no longer appear that anachronistic.

HELLO! Captain … Stop at the “CHOCOLAT LOMBART” submarine station

Third, predictions work best when consumer experience takes centre stage, and the forecaster imagines what invention could possibly bring further ease and comfort.

Fourth and last, even when making predictions about technology, leaving out the society seriously derails the forecast. Working at a time when the gap between the haves and the have-nots appeared unsurmountable, the artist could not imagine that 20-century airline industry would be based on mass mobility. Airbus’s A340-600 can carry up to 475 passengers in high-density seating. The cars imagined by Norgeu’s printers could carry at most six. One detail is especially telling – the driver of the flying limousine does not share the cabin with the exalted passengers but must freeze outside. This implies the chauffeur’s comfort was not considered part of technological progress, it was not something flying car makers were supposed to think about. (Ironically, even this appears less absurd in 2021 than it did as recently as in 2019 – having the passengers and drivers physically separate would greatly aid pandemic mobility).

THE ADRIATIC

This article was originally published in The Adriatic Journal: Strategic Foresight 2021
If you want a copy, please contact us at info@adriaticjournal.com.


A Peek Behind the Dust and Rust

Fish canneries in the Adriatic

editor


June 2021 Living

Martin Pogačar, PhD

RESEARCH FELLOW, INSTITUTE OF CULTURE AND MEMORY STUDIES


In early spring 2018, a team of three researchers travelled to Lošinj, a popular tourist island in north-eastern Adriatic. The largest town, Mali Lošinj is also the largest Adriatic island town, historically famous for its shipwrights and shipyards and captains of the high seas. The port and the island boast a rich history stretching back to ancient Roman times while more recently it was also a popular resort for the Habsburg nobility of late 19th and early 20th centuries. Throughout the 20th century, the island and the town were a site of industrialisation and deindustrialisation, and lately the dominance of tourism.

The motives for our trip were quite specific: we were eager to find out more about the history and present of Adriatic fish canneries, coded in workers’ memories. We wanted to understand the broader implications of industrialisation and deindustrialisation as told through local stories along the Adriatic eastern coast. What were the consequences of fish canning industry in north-eastern Adriatic for society, economy, environment? How was this industry intertwined with global trends? How did working in a factory shape social life and the social world, which extended beyond the factory fences, into everyday life, entertainment, leisure, and how did this industry affect relationships between men and women?

A very brief history …

Fish canning as an industrial method originated in France where one Nicolas Appert won the concours in 1812 to provide Napoleon’s army with a solution to more easily and effectively preserve and transport food on their military endeavours. By mid-1820s the industry spread from France to England, to Portugal and Spain, to the USA, the Middle East and elsewhere. It was the beginning of the first global food production industry.

Primarily a military invention, or rather innovation of an older preservation techniques, canning opened up new possibilities also for general human mobility and longer energy-autonomy, as put in practice in extreme expeditions to the poles that spiked in the latter 19th century. Canning, booming in the time of rapid industrialisation, redefined, along with the railway, where and how far a human body might be able to travel. In fact, canning had such a profound symbolic and practical effect that the first recorded music was referred to as canned music, precisely because the record was seen to preserve sound in a similar vein as canning preserved food.

Work in fish factory meant gutting, cleaning the catch in the open, in all kidns of weather. Work was seasonal and demanding.

As such the history of canning lends insight into the wider histories and problematics of globalisation and industrialisation of the late 19th century. For example, in 1852 the British Navy commissioned an assortment of canned food for its men. The best offer came from Romania, where an Englishman established a canning factory. The product, however, as cheap as it might have been included undercooked, rotting offal and other unwanted bits of meat. No amount of bleach, reportedly, could help get rid of the stench. Most of the remaining cans were thrown into sea and some were given to the poor.

But this was also the time of development of science and technology, and it was Pasteur who was able to scientifically explain why was it that canned food could achieve longer shelf life: sterilisation eliminated microbes and altered proteins; conserved food in oxygen-free atmosphere could thus survive almost indefinitely. Scientific and technological development also brought new materials and new methods of production; over time, the difficult to open, tinned iron cans were replaced with aluminium ones; production units that initially were mostly manually operated were gradually automated; fire and coal powered sterilisation chambers were electrified, as were cooling houses which enabled a more consistent yearly distribution of the catch, hence also work. Regardless, the tin can remained a nutritional item for the rich and the poor, an object of health debates, design and branding, an essential nutrient on school trips for some, for others a staple in military service diet. Perhaps most extreme, the tin can also made it to space with first human extra-terrestrial travels.

... and its local iteration

North-eastern Adriatic coastal and island villages and towns were home to more than 60 canneries, the first two established by Karl Warhanek, a Habsburg businessman in Rijeka and Jelsa, Hvar island, in 1861. The development of the industry was also funded by the French and Italian capital and Europe-wide export trade. On a historical map of fish canneries names such as Izola, Rovinj, Banjole in Istria, or Jelsa, Vrboska, Komiža in Dalmacija crop up, sites with extensive fishing and fish-processing traditions that provided local expertise, labour power, and access to resources. The industry was dependent on the seasons and the movements of and fluctuations in fish populations. For example, in the latter 19th century, sardines, the most popular and famed canning species, nearly ran out in the Adriatic, forcing fishermen to cruise further south, towards Italy’s Sicily and Lampedusa. Entrepreneurial Hvar fishermen established fish processing plants on these coasts, salting fish and selling it across the Mediterranean. Some, such as Vice Novak from Hvar, even moved as far as Portugal to establish several factories, contributing to the exchange of expertise and capital (Gamulin in Zgodbe iz konzerve, 2020).

Today, only a handful of factories still operate while many have closed down, at various points over the late 20th century. Prime locations, often at the outskirts of old city centres were or will be sold for luxury hotels and tourist appartements, often leaving little else than a monument to mark the presence of the factory, that speaks little of the factory life: the on-site physician and child care, culture facilities, such as cinema were far from rare, integral part of work environment ( Petrović in Zgodbe iz konzerve, 2020).

Some factories, however, such as the Slovenian cannery Delamaris from Izola (named after the Second World War, when the border between Yugoslavia and Italy was settled, after the three factories that operated in Izola before the war, De Langlade, Ampelea, and Arigoni, and the first two letters of the Italian spelling of the town, Isola) was relocated from Izola to Pivka, while the Neptun cannery from Komiža, Vis island, was relocated to mainland Serbia (Petrović; Rogelja Daf in Janko Spreizer in Zgodbe iz konzerve, 2020). As much as the arrival of canning industry affected the look of towns and changed social relationships, particularly in terms of women emancipation and autonomy, so did its departure bring deindustrialisation and, in many cases, forgetting, supplanted by sanitised, idealised images from tourist ads.

Memories and stories

The factory in Mali Lošinj, named Kvarner riba, closed in 1974 and the building today is in a state of disrepair, and a hazard to visitors. It is barely kept alive by a group of artists who have studios on the ground floor, and cats who reign supreme on the first floor, among broken rusted tins, wooden crates, yellowy paper wraps. As we ascended the stairs we were enveloped in scents and pieces of time gone by that permeates cold stone walls, reflects off the broken glass and hovering particles of dust. But decay and melancholia only speak that much.

The former workers we had the chance to speak to told stories about factory work and shared with us snippets from their lives. The words fleshed out for us the getting up very early in the morning, the gutting of fish in the cold wintery water, the irregularities of nature of work, dependant on the season and daily catch; and, later on, distribution from the cooling houses. It was not difficult to imagine a boat speeding across the bay at the break of dawn, bringing workers to the factory, taking positions at the gutting tables, at the sterilisation boiler, or in the office keeping records of the amount of tins produced, the destinations to be shipped to. The factory shipped produce to the mainland for domestic market and the Yugoslav Army, but also to Austria, France and the USA, as could be deducted from the decaying paper wraps for cans, printed in various languages, promoting the quality Yugoslav product to foreign and domestic consumers.

The quest then brought us to the nearby island of Cres and the stories of the workers of the Plavica cannery, which closed in 1996. They emphasised the social aspect of work and the entanglement of work and everyday life. The narratives of the demanding working conditions were thus counterbalanced by fonder narratives of female workers about their work during the 1980s, about the satisfaction that they could go buy their own jeans and go to the disco.

Before the introduction of easy open ends, special knives were needed to access the content

Workplace constituted a place of sociality and community. Another important feature was the perception of change after the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the privatisation or denationalisation that followed in the aftermath of the country’s demise. The introduction of free market exposed the weak postsocialist economies, the power play of political and economic interests in which many interlocutors saw the reason for personal degradation and degradation of labour at large. The comparison of the memories of the situation before and after 1991, the year Yugoslavia disintegrated, clearly outlines a change in the social meaning of work that seems to have shifted from, declaratively and practically, workers as value to workers as cost. In a way, the stinky job made for quality spare time and was also a way to impart meaning on life.

Yet, older workers’ narratives from Vela Luka, Korčula island, reveal another layer to the story and add further complexity. After the war in 1945 the newly formed country of Yugoslavia found itself in a situation with most of the pre-war industry destroyed and with vast numbers of displaced and traumatised citizens. The aftermath of the war was a time of political consolidation of the new regime and a time of renovation and construction. In such conditions, the industry, including fish factories and others, was in dire need of labour power; they thus often illegally enlisted minors, especially women, some of whom started working at the age of fourteen or sooner, and therefore missed schooling, leaving them under-educated, often barely literate. On top of that, when they retired the ‘illegal years’ would not count in the number of working years and pension calculation. Still, for many female workers this was a way to achieve personal and financial independence and control over their life that was traditionally framed by patriarchal relations. As such, intimate labour histories are often still seen as a source of pride and personal realisation, and as a lens that puts the present into a different perspective (Borovičkić and Vene in Zgodbe iz konzerve, 2020).

Another look back

As we today try to understand the past and the fate of fish factories in the Adriatic, we can see that a rich history of labour and industry is almost forgotten, overridden by tourist success stories, real estate investment, and the general unease about what to do with industrial heritage. The successors to the socialist Yugoslavia systematically and consistently fail to understand the lost opportunities of cultivating industrial heritage. What is worse, they thus amplify the dissolution of historical knowledge about Yugoslav modernisation and industrialisation, which in contemporary interpretations of the past, inflected by the ideological and political and economic distancing of post-socialist states from their pasts, is simplified and sanitised. Such interpretations tend to misread the past as an ideological autarchic monolith and refuse to apply a more granular approach to understanding the often contradictory events and processes in the past where real people also lived, with hopes, aspirations, pride and pain. The mission that brought us to Lošinj and other places in the Adriatic, then, was not only an endeavour to save the memories of the forgotten workers and their industry, but also to provide insight and a more detailed understanding of how an industry, dependent on global politics and economies developed and subsided along the Adriatic coast.

This initial leg of the journey was concluded with an edited volume Stories from the can (Zgodbe iz konzerve, Zgodovine predelave in konzerviranja rib na severo-vzhodnem Jadranu, Založba ZRC 2020).

THE ADRIATIC

This is an article from Adriatic Journal Strategic Foresight 2021
If you want a copy, please contact us at info@adriaticjournal.com.