Their promoters claim these technologies will radically alter the way our society works and perceives itself. Just like in earlier eras, the steam engine ushered in the industrial revolution, and the motor car changed transportation and opened up the suburban lifestyle. Therefore, a look back at the time when today's old tech was still new and exciting can offer lessons on what changes to expect from our generation's novelties.

The relative number of horses in the Habsburg crown land of Carniola (which covered much of today's Slovenia) shows that new technologies are slow to displace established. In many cases, the old ways of doing things continue to grow alongside the new. Yet these figures also illustrate how far our standard of living has advanced. Today, car ownership is commonplace, while only a minority could afford horses. Also, the widespread use of cars did not completely eliminate the ownership of animals.

Horses and cars per 100 inhabitants
Year Horses (Carniola) Horses (Slovenia) Passenger cars (Slovenia)
18904.8--
19004.9--
19105.2--
2010-0.002951.8
2020-0.002555.5
2024--58.7

Source: Osterreichisches statistisches Handbuch fur die im Reichsrathe vertretenen Konigreiche und Lander (editions for 1900, 1901, and 1910); Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia

The second table, drawn from an 1897 public lecture by the Austrian car pioneer Ludwig Lohner (1858-1925), illustrates the main impetus for growing car adoption. It was not merely the thrill, speed, or cleanliness (no manure) that attracted buyers. Early motor vehicles offered a better deal. Still, in its early forms, the car was a plaything of the super-wealthy, just like the horse-drawn carriages it would eventually replace.

Costs of private transportation, 1897 (Austrian Gulden)
Carriage Motor car
Up-front costs
2 mid-priced horses1200-
2 pairs of harnesses, winter and summer blankets, stable equipment500-
2 carriages (e.g. Coupe & Mylord)1800-
Coachman's livery100-
Third (spare) horse600-
Vehicle cost-3500
Car body for the winter-700
Chauffeur's uniform-100
Annual costs
Stable for 2 horses, carriage house for 2 carriages, feed storage400-
Oats, hay, and straw for 2 horses750-
Coachman's salary728-
Garaging-120
Chauffeur's salary-780
Variable costs
Petrol for 40 km per day-365
Repairs450450
Horseshoeing for 2 horses120-
Veterinarian20-
Clipping for two horses, twice20-
Amortisation over 2, 5, and 12 years540-
Amortisation over 2 and 10 years-470
Upkeep and costs for the spare horse600-
Total78286485

Source: Mahrisches Gewerbe-Blatt, vol. XIX (1897): 41-45