Geopolitics

The Art of the Black Swan

Paranoia as method

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In geopolitics, the costliest mistakes rarely stem from ignorance - they stem from a failure of imagination. Paranoia, in this sense, is not irrational but a cognitive frame for navigating a world of recurring crises and fraying post-war institutions. This forum puts black swan scenarios centre stage: low-probability events with outsized consequences for the global economy, of the sort we saw on 11 September 2001.

For Slovenia - an acutely export-oriented and open economy whose prosperity is tightly woven into international flows of goods, capital and knowledge - geopolitical shocks carry immediate consequences. Exports now account for roughly 92 per cent of GDP, up from 62 per cent in 2014. Our largest trading partners sit overwhelmingly in Europe, a continent facing demographic decline, sluggish growth relative to much of the world, and a shrinking share of the global economy.

The question, then, is: how can Slovenia break into faster-growing markets, finance the expansion of its firms abroad, and maintain resilient supply chains in an era of mounting geopolitical uncertainty?

Join the Institute for Strategic Solutions (ISR) for the latest in our inFocus series. The event will bring together economists, business leaders and policymakers to discuss the challenges facing Slovenia's export economy in an increasingly fragmented global trading order.