The Art of the Black Swan

In geopolitics, the costliest mistakes rarely stem from ignorance - they stem from a failure of imagination. Paranoia, in this sense, is not irrational but a cognitive frame for navigating a world of recurring crises and fraying post-war institutions.

This forum put black swan scenarios centre stage: low-probability events with outsized consequences for the global economy, of the sort we saw on 11 September 2001.

For Slovenia - an acutely export-oriented and open economy whose prosperity is tightly woven into international flows of goods, capital and knowledge - geopolitical shocks carry immediate consequences. Exports now account for roughly 92 per cent of GDP, up from 62 per cent in 2014.

The question, then, is: how can Slovenia break into faster-growing markets, finance the expansion of its firms abroad, and maintain resilient supply chains in an era of mounting geopolitical uncertainty?