Outside the Ljubljana City Museum on Tuesday afternoon, snow fell steadily across the city centre, the kind of sustained winter weather the Slovenian capital hasn’t seen in years. Inside the museum’s intimate cinema-style conference space, roughly a hundred people brushed flakes from their coats, collected glasses of wine, and exchanged New Year’s greetings before settling into their seats.

That so many attended, despite the storm outside, suggested expectations were running high for the Institute for Strategic Solutions’ annual Strategic Foresight gathering. The Ljubljana-based think-tank, operating since 2011, was launching the fourteenth edition of its publication The Adriatic: Strategic Foresight. The magazine’s cover features artwork by Ciril Horjak, the illustrator and comic artist who won Slovenia’s Prešeren Prize for achievement in the arts – his covers have become something of a staple for the publication.

The timing also felt pointed. Slovenia faces parliamentary elections in March. The Western Balkans inches towards the European Union’s self-imposed 2030 enlargement deadline – Montenegro and Albania furthest along in negotiations – whilst questions about where capital flows, whether European regulations enable or constrain growth, and who controls the digital infrastructure underpinning modern economies have moved from theoretical to immediate.

“The economy isn’t a competition in the classical sense, where some win and others lose,” said Tine Kračun, the institute’s director, opening the afternoon. “The goal is to create conditions where everyone can thrive.”

But it also depends on whether existing members like Slovenia can demonstrate that EU membership actually supports economic competitiveness rather than constraining it. Whether conditions currently support that ambition became the afternoon’s central tension.

Performance politics

Three days earlier, Trump had ordered Delta Force commandos into Venezuela to capture President Nicolás Maduro, a tactically impressive raid with no apparent plan for what comes next. Photographs from the Mar-a-Lago “war room” revealed administration officials monitoring the operation alongside a large screen displaying X.com with “Venezuela” searched, tracking public reaction in real time. These weren’t public servants executing policy. They were influencers managing content.

But whilst attention fixes on the stage, Stojan argued, processes unfold in the background that carry long-term consequences. He displayed a series of graphs tracking global manufacturing’s share of added value from 1995 to 2022. Across the room, phones emerged from pockets as attendees photographed the data: China’s line climbing from 4% to nearly 30%, the United States falling from 21% to 17%, the EU declining similarly. The other side of this story, he said, is security, visible most clearly in rising military expenditures and the militarisation of political discourse.

“Our message for 2026,” Stojan concluded. “Turn on your filters.”

Nejc Krevs, a young journalist and news anchor whose profile has risen steadily over the past few years, took over to steer the discussion that followed.

The capital question

Andrej Lasič, a board member at NLB, Slovenia’s largest bank, said the bulk of capital in the Western Balkans flows into construction, property and retail, all sectors with relatively low added value. “I’d like to see more investment in technology and high-value industries,” he said.

His observation reflects a broader challenge of how to move up the value chain when established sectors offer more predictable returns. Construction and retail require less specialised knowledge, face fewer regulatory hurdles, and generate faster cash flows than, say, software development or advanced manufacturing. But they also create fewer high-skilled jobs and contribute less to long-term productivity growth.

Lasič expressed optimism about EU accession prospects for Montenegro and Albania, but added that Brussels still “doesn’t fully understand the region,” which constrains development.

Slovenia has often held the reputation of being the Balkans’ gateway into Europe, its economy and institutions shaped by two decades inside the union, and Tamara Zajec Balažič, director of SPIRIT Slovenia, the national business development agency, leaned into that role. Slovenian companies remain competitive in the Western Balkans, particularly in logistics, information technology and manufacturing, she said, and the country is recognised internationally as adaptable, innovative, reliable. But the region still faces regulatory fragmentation, varying levels of transparency alongside often lengthy and complex administrative procedures.

Two decades inside the union have made Slovenia fluent in Brussels bureaucracy whilst geographic proximity and shared history keep it attuned to Balkan realities, enabling it to understand both sides of a disconnect that policymakers further west often miss.

Platform economics

Ivana Vrviščar, a board member at Pošta Slovenije, the state postal operator, broadened the discussion to examine structural changes in global capitalism. The economy is entering a new phase, she argued, one departing from classical free-market models. Digital platforms linked to e-commerce, cloud computing and data management now dominate, with infrastructure owners extracting rental income rather than competing on price or quality.

She described this as “technologically conditioned feudalism,” or, to borrow the term coined by Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister who battled EU creditors during the 2015 debt crisis, “technofeudalism.”

No one contested the diagnosis. The question wasn’t whether platform economics had fundamentally altered capitalism, but what established businesses could do about it.

Uroš Ivanc from Triglav Insurance, the region’s largest insurer, offered a pragmatic response. Business risks remain constant, he said, but understanding them creates space for innovation. The industry is developing new products to address technological, demographic and regulatory risks, increasingly deploying artificial intelligence to optimise processes and manage data. “Insurance possesses extensive databases which, properly processed, create added value for both clients and insurers.”

If you can’t compete with the platforms, the logic suggested, become more platform-like yourself.

Competing with one hand tied

The sharpest frustrations emerged when discussion turned to regulatory burden, specifically, whether European and national rules hamper competitiveness in globally exposed industries.

Dr Tomaž Vuk, chief executive of Alpacem Cement, spoke with the precision of someone who knows exactly what his industry requires and what stands in its way. Materials manufacturing competes in an environment without level playing fields, he said, where companies elsewhere operate under different environmental standards, labour protections, compliance costs.

Competitiveness requires systemic change, not just company-level improvements, Vuk argued. In the EU, where a directive agreed upon by all member states often ahs to take years before being implemented at a national leve, this sort of duplification appears unnecessary and wasteful, creating delays that last years.

Competitiveness requires systemic change, not just company-level improvements, Vuk argued. The region must accelerate decision-making if it wants to compete globally, yet in the EU, directives agreed by all member states still take years to filter down to national implementation, a duplication of process that creates delays competitors elsewhere don’t face.

Leaning forward when his turn came, Franc Dover, director of Pannonia Bio Gas, spoke with the kind of passion that suggested he was finally saying aloud what had been building for some time. Slovenia has significant but underutilised potential for energy self-sufficiency through waste management, where biogas plants can convert unsuitable maize, agricultural residues, animal manure, food waste into energy, turning what gets discarded into power. “But permit procedures can last several years,” he lamented.

Dover’s irritation felt more immediate, less resigned. The technical solutions exist. The economic case strengthens as energy prices rise and climate commitments tighten. What’s missing is institutional capacity to move from policy ambition to physical deployment. Governments announce ambitious renewable energy targets, then struggle to approve the infrastructure needed to meet them, approval processes stretching across years whilst competitors elsewhere simply build.

Outside, snow continued falling on Ljubljana, heavier now than when the afternoon began. Inside, the hundred people who’d chosen to attend despite the weather dispersed slowly, reluctant to leave the warmth, conversations continuing in clusters near the entrance.

Every week, freight trains and lorries move automotive parts, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods from the Adriatic coast into the Western Balkans, a region where economic growth has outpaced Western Europe in recent years, but where logistics infrastructure has struggled to keep pace. 

For Intereuropa, a Slovenian logistics firm with operations across nine countries in southeastern Europe, this gap represents both challenge and opportunity. 

Global freight markets remain volatile. Container prices have eased from pandemic peaks, but demand is uneven, geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt trade routes, and logistics providers face sustained pressure on margins. Companies operating in the region must coordinate customs, warehousing, and transport across jurisdictions with differing regulations and uneven infrastructure. 

Intereuropa has moved beyond traditional transport and customs clearance, developing more complex services in recent years, comprising warehousing, distribution, last-mile delivery. “Customers increasingly expect solutions tailored to their processes,” says Samo Kastelic, who joined Intereuropa’s management board in September after holding leadership positions at international logistics firms. The company operates twelve subsidiaries and manages over 260,000 square metres of logistics infrastructure across the former Yugoslav space. 

That regional footprint, Kastelic argues, gives Intereuropa a structural advantage. Multinational clients operating across southeastern Europe can work with a single provider rather than coordinating separate contractors in each country. The company handles customs clearance, warehousing, distribution, and final delivery, or what the industry calls end-to-end logistics. 

Warehousing expansion and high-value freight 

Intereuropa’s recent investments have focused on capacity and service depth rather than geographic expansion. The company opened a logistics centre at Kukuljanovo, near the Croatian port city of Rijeka, and acquired additional storage facilities at Novi Banovci outside Belgrade. Combined with existing infrastructure across the region, total warehousing capacity now exceeds 260,000 square metres. 

But warehousing alone is not the business. The company has shifted toward sectors where complexity commands higher margins. Pharmaceuticals require temperature-controlled storage and regulatory compliance. Food distribution demands tight delivery windows. Hazardous materials and oversized cargo need specialised handling expertise. 

“We have strategically focused on certain industries and types of goods that require a high level of handling conditions, which also bring more added value,” Kastelic says. “Pharmaceuticals, food, retail, oversized cargo, dangerous goods.” 

The logic is straightforward. Commodity freight is price-sensitive.  Specialised logistics, tailored to specific industries and their regulatory requirements, offer more durable returns.  Intereuropa expects that clients will value and invest in reliability and coordination in a region where these qualities are still hard to ensure. 

The company also works extensively with automotive manufacturers, managing parts distribution for several major brands through its network. The Port of Koper, Slovenia’s sole maritime gateway, serves as the primary entry point for goods destined for the Balkan hinterland, and Intereuropa’s infrastructure is designed to connect that port to markets across the region. 

Rail freight and the Koper-Belgrade corridor 

In 2024, Intereuropa launched a regular rail freight service between Koper and Belgrade, a twice-weekly connection designed to offer an alternative to road haulage. 

The service reflects broader shifts in European freight policy. The EU has pushed for modal shift from road to rail as part of its decarbonisation agenda, and logistics providers are under pressure to reduce emissions across their operations. Rail is slower than air, but faster than road over long distances, and produces a fraction of the carbon emissions per tonne-kilometre. 

“We moved part of our freight flow from road to rail,” Kastelic says. “Price competitiveness and level of service are decisive, alongside the environmental impact.” 

The commercial case for rail depends on reliability and price competitiveness. If trains run on schedule and costs remain below road haulage, clients will shift volumes. If delays mount or pricing advantages erode, the incentive disappears. Intereuropa frames the Koper-Belgrade service as proof of concept and as a demonstration that intermodal freight can work in a region where rail infrastructure has historically lagged. 

The company is also developing last-mile delivery capabilities to complement its rail and warehousing operations. The goal is full supply chain coverage. Goods arrive at Koper by sea, move by rail to regional hubs, are stored and processed in Intereuropa’s warehouses, and reach final customers via the company’s distribution network. 

Digitisation and operational flexibility 

Kastelic emphasises that physical infrastructure alone is insufficient. Without information systems capable of tracking shipments, coordinating customs documentation, and providing clients with real-time visibility, logistics networks cannot function efficiently. 

“Appropriate information support plays an extremely important role in the quality execution of logistics processes,” he says. “Without it, it is practically impossible to imagine doing business.” 

Intereuropa has invested in upgrading its core IT platforms, developing new systems for parcel distribution, and integrating data flows across its subsidiaries. The company maintains an in-house development team that works directly with clients to design bespoke solutions, tracking systems, inventory management, delivery scheduling tailored to specific supply chains. 

The emphasis on flexibility reflects market conditions, as freight volumes fluctuate with economic cycles, trade policies shift unpredictably, and geopolitical disruptions can reroute supply chains overnight. Logistics providers must absorb these shocks without passing excessive costs to clients. 

Container prices, though lower than their 2021–22 peaks, remain volatile. Demand in Western Europe has softened, while southeastern European markets continue to grow. Intereuropa’s regional focus positions it to benefit from that divergence, but only if it can adapt quickly to changing flows. 

“We closely monitor conditions and strive to operate very flexibly,” Kastelic says. “We redirect transport capacity according to the structure and flows of freight.” 

Outlook 

Intereuropa plans to continue expanding warehousing capacity across the region, with particular focus on e-commerce fulfilment, where demand has grown rapidly and logistics requirements differ from traditional freight. The company already operates a fulfilment centre in Dravograd, Slovenia, and sees potential for similar facilities elsewhere in its network. 

Investment in IT will also continue. The company is developing platforms for parcel distribution and upgrading applications that support core logistics processes. Kastelic describes digital capability as a competitive differentiator, one that allows Intereuropa to offer services smaller regional competitors cannot match. 

The broader outlook depends on factors beyond any single company’s control. Southeastern Europe’s integration into European supply chains continues, but unevenly. EU infrastructure funding has flowed into the region, though project delivery remains inconsistent. Border procedures have improved in some corridors and stagnated in others. 

Intereuropa’s strategy assumes that economic integration will proceed, that freight volumes will continue growing, and that clients will value reliability enough to pay for it. “Southeastern Europe has significant potential,” Kastelic says. The twice-weekly train from Koper to Belgrade keeps running, and the company is betting that more will follow.